Elections
The Janz-Dyer Mayoral Battle Is Tight: GV Wire Poll
Prosecutor Andrew Janz and former police chief Jerry Dyer are waging a highly competitive race for Fresno mayor, according to a GV Wire poll.
In telephone interviews conducted with 500 likely voters ending Jan. 4, both candidates were below the 50%-plus-one margin required to avoid a November run-off.
Janz held a slight edge. He drew 47% support compared to 45.2% favoring Dyer, with 7.8% undecided.
However, the difference in support for Janz and Dyer fell within the poll’s 4% plus-or-minus range of error. The poll has a 95% confidence level.
The poll did not ask about the other mayoral candidates on the March 3 primary ballot. They are the Rev. Floyd Harris Jr., Bill Gates, Nickolas Wildstar, Richard Renteria, and Brian Jefferson. None of them has filed fundraising reports.
(GV Wire/Alexis DeSha)
Poll Indicates a Highly Partisan Race
Digging into the poll reveals an electorate deeply divided along partisan lines for what is officially a nonpartisan position.
Janz, a Democrat, was preferred by 83.3% of Democrats queried. Dyer, a Republican, was backed by 93% of GOP respondents.
No party preference voters provided 61.3% support for Janz and 22.8% for Dyer, with 15.8% undecided.
As of Jan. 3, Fresno had 254,693 voters — 42% Democrat, 27% Republican, and 25% no party preference.
Dyer Evokes Strong Positives and Negatives
Looking at favorability, 45.2% of respondents held a very positive or positive view of Dyer. That compared to 39.6% with very positive or positive views of Janz.
Respondents were less likely to say they had negative or very negative views of Janz. His negatives totaled 29.2%. For Dyer, the negatives totaled 36.4%.
Among likely voters polled, 19.6% said they were neutral about Janz. Dyer drew a neutral response from 19.2%.
(GV Wire/Alexis DeSha)
(GV Wire/Alexis DeSha)
Name Recognition
Dyer owned a significant edge in name identification, perhaps reflecting his 18 years as Fresno police chief. Just 1.2% of respondents said they knew nothing about Dyer.
In contrast, 11.6% said they weren’t familiar with Janz.
Both Candidates Have Strong Pockets of Support
The poll showed Dyer doing best in northeast Fresno, which traditionally has high voter turnout. He had 59.7% support compared to 33.6% for Janz, with 6.7% yet to make up their minds.
Janz was strongest in southwest Fresno with 63.3% support. Dyer drew 25% in the district, and 11.7% said they were undecided.
Northwest Fresno, another high-turnout district, appears highly competitive. Dyer drew 48.6 % support to 45% for Janz, with 6.3% undecided.
[rlic_related_post_one]
Elizabeth Stump
January 24, 2020 at 5:59 pm
So, why did you not include the other candidates in the poll? Gallup polls says 57% of Americans say a third major political party is needed:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx
O. Mattinez
January 24, 2020 at 7:58 pm
Vote Janz everybody!!
CG
January 27, 2020 at 3:48 pm
Why? Based on what? No experience whatsoever. That explains the attack he does because he lacks the intellectual and analytical skills necessary to formulate any solutions on problems outside the courtroom.
Brenda Linder
January 25, 2020 at 6:27 am
Where’s the link for the protocol and raw data for the poll?
Nancy
January 27, 2020 at 2:11 am
What was the demographics, the sample size, controls used, It seems that GV Wire used a flawed selection of people for this. Not only is age important but the type of questions you would ask.
No I say flawed study.
Bill Thacker
January 27, 2020 at 8:52 am
Why should we be surprised? The Progressive games of false data, questionable methods and sampling, gathering and obtaining data. What demographics? Most people I know in Fresno have no clue who Janz is , then the light bulb goes off regarding his pass tactics of attacking his opponent as “that guy from Tulare”
The quest for Progressives is clear, attack every Democrat and Republican that they feel is the “establishment” they will drum up poor information on you from 40 years ago and deflect their campaign away from their lack of experience with attacks from unsound so-called polls, to starting rumors, to vilifying the opponent and their followers. Progressives attack anyone and everyone, creating a divide by every means they can even by zip code, attacking the race and religions. This poll is so unprofessional (anyone can throw a pie chart together) it lacks specifics, and collection from a 3rd party source.
A gaggle of the same old trouble makers going after the local Democrats resulting in people leaving the local Democratic party and a nasty lawsuit with the Progressive Maxwell vs. established Democrats. Largely the same old crybabies that are not from Fresno and whine & complain about everything.
Typical leftovers from McClatchy, none of you love Fresno and you do everything to destroy the schools, safety and health of its hard working taxpayers. Without fact checking the articles and it’s methods for gathering the data.
Calling Fresno’s street vagrancy a “crisis” or “epidemic” is laughable…more wrong data. How does 2,200 people on the streets constitute as a “crisis” out of a population of 500,000 in Fresno city and in the county 1.4 million. The entire state has 38 million (with about another 6 million illegals) population and a estimated total of 135,000 homeless with about 80% being Meth Addicted, Mental Health and barely 20% in a temporary housing situation. Caught with high rent, in between jobs, or living in an area they cannot afford and being out of work. People shouldn’t live in a state or area they cannot afford, I want to live on the beach but the reality of this would be impossible.
Janz thinks the middle class in Fresno can afford higher taxes to pay for his “high poverty” tactics and other negatives he throws out, he is simply dreaming. First of all, he has no leadership experiences working with budgets and multiple departments. He has no clue who the right people are or business developers are in Fresno. The movers and shakers that have those connections to businesses, trade & vocational training for better jobs. Nor has he bothered to reach out to any people that know how to bring business development into Fresno to create more jobs and a better tax base to work with local budgets.
Janz has no comprehensive business plan to accomplish his lofty goals which are merely the same sound bites from every candidate. Where are these jobs? educational training?
Janz must think that money falls from the skies and isn’t earned off the backs of hard working middle class holding together Fresno’s health, safety and education. With irresponsible data on this race, and dirty mudslinging on a opponent that has served over 40 years (longer than Janz has been alive) how can any responsible Fresno taxpayer entrust someone who plays games with data?
We know the Progressives will play games with the votes, they will lie, cheat, blackmail, slander, et al their way to what they want…they have no tolerance for diversity of thought they want it NOW.
I highly doubt GV-Wire has the guts to print this reply. It’s no surprise that most of these “Progressives” take their marching orders from the show they adore the most The Young Turks. Named after the corrupt regime in the Ottoman Empire, destroy all political parties then destroy the people.
ruby
January 29, 2020 at 9:11 pm
ok boomer
Sandra
January 27, 2020 at 6:36 pm
Vote Dyer